45 Users, One Lineup: Luther Burden III at CPT on TNF
NE @ CHI on Thursday, Oct 22: a shared first place, a 3 CHI + 3 NE build and a captain the field used at 7.3%.
- First place was shared: 45 users tied, with 1 lineup between them. The abc007 portfolio is one of those 45.
- The shared lineup put Luther Burden III at CPT, a captain outside the field's top 3 at 7.3%. The portfolio captained him in 14.3% of its lineups.
- In a FLEX seat the portfolio went +19.4% on Rhamondre Stevenson against the field, while it sat under the field on Drake Maye in any seat.
- The portfolio's edge total ranked 9th in the top 10, the lower half. That points to dilution across 63 entries more than to a weaker build.
The result
The $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown on Thursday, Oct 22, NE @ CHI, drew 73,529 entries. The top spot was shared. 46 lineups from 45 users tied at 153.61 points, with 1 distinct build among them: every tied user entered the same lineup. The abc007 portfolio is one of those 45 users.
That portfolio ran 63 entries and touched 21 players, 53.8% of the 39 the field used. It cashed 12 lineups for $14,064.78.
Player usage was spread wide, built around a heavy core of 3 players. That reads like a wide shell with a few anchors. A tie this size also points to variance: one outcome proves no method.
The captain
The winning lineup put Luther Burden III at CPT, a captain outside the field's top 3 at 7.3%. He ranked 6th among the field's captains. The portfolio captained him in 9 lineups, 14.3%, a captain leverage of +7.0%. That is over the field.
On the field's most popular captain, the portfolio stayed with the field. It held Drake Maye at CPT in 14 of its lineups, 22.2%; the field was at 18.3%. It used 11 captains in all. The field used 29.
Our projection had Luther Burden III at 8.0% as captain before lock; the field captained him in 7.3% of its lineups. For Drake Maye, our captain number was 17.0% and the field's was 18.3%.
Captain and FLEX
One player can carry different numbers by slot. Luther Burden III went +7.0% at CPT. In a FLEX seat, the portfolio held him in 30.2% of its lineups against the field's 33.1%.
Drake Maye ran the other way. At CPT the portfolio held 22.2% against the field's 18.3%. In a FLEX seat it held 47.6% against 61.7%. In any seat, that left it under the field on the field's most-owned player: 69.8% against 79.9%.
In a FLEX seat the portfolio went +19.4% on Rhamondre Stevenson against the field, 41.3% to 21.9%. At CPT it held him in 3.2% of its lineups; the field was at 3.7%. He scored 22.50, worth +0.90 points per lineup against the field.
The portfolio was over the field on its winning captain at CPT and under the field on Drake Maye across all seats. That reads like captain share and FLEX share set independently. The lineups show the split. They cannot say why.
The build
The winning lineup ran 3 CHI + 3 NE, the field's most common split, at 42.2% of the field. The portfolio used that split in 28.6% of its lineups and spread the rest across heavier splits, shown in the tables below.
It left $0 of a $50,000 cap. Only 8.2% of the field's lineups used the whole cap. On average the field left $856, the portfolio $425.
Near the top
Every row of the top 10 holds the tied lineup: 10 of 10 users had Luther Burden III at CPT in their best lineup. Of those users, 3 entered a single lineup.
On the chalk, 3 users were under the field on Drake Maye and 2 on Caleb Williams; 0 and 0 left them out entirely. On D'Andre Swift, 6 were under the field and 4 never played him.
The portfolio's edge total was +1.12 points per lineup gained against the field: +0.75 from the winning lineup, +0.37 from the other 62. Its largest single edge, +2.28, came from Kyle Williams, not in the winning lineup: 6.4% of its lineups against the field's 19.2% in any seat, on a player who scored 0.00.
That total ranked 9th among the top 10 users, the lower half, and came mostly the winning lineup. The leader, a 1-entry user, sat at +43.19. That points to entry count more than build: 63 entries dilute what one tied lineup carries.
The lesson
Next time, read each player's captain share and FLEX share separately before you look at team splits. This portfolio's +7.0% at CPT on one player and +19.4% in a FLEX seat on another suggest a portfolio can move away from the field without leaving the field's most common split. One tie proves nothing. The check still holds.
The winning lineup
153.61 points with $50,000 in salary. CPT: Luther Burden III. Team split: 3 CHI + 3 NE.
Field CPT and Field FLEX = share of all 73,529 lineups with the player in that slot. Winner CPT and Winner FLEX = share of the winning portfolio's 63 lineups. A CPT seat scores and costs the captain price.
| Slot | Player | Team | Salary | Pts | Field CPT | Field FLEX | Winner CPT | Winner FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPT | Luther Burden III | CHI | $12,600 | 40.05 | 7.3% | 33.1% | 14.3% | 30.2% |
| FLEX | Drake Maye | NE | $10,600 | 31.44 | 18.3% | 61.7% | 22.2% | 47.6% |
| FLEX | Caleb Williams | CHI | $10,400 | 25.12 | 15.3% | 61.0% | 14.3% | 55.6% |
| FLEX | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | $7,800 | 22.50 | 3.7% | 21.9% | 3.2% | 41.3% |
| FLEX | Colston Loveland | CHI | $6,400 | 19.90 | 7.6% | 31.0% | 4.8% | 30.2% |
| FLEX | Eli Raridon | NE | $2,200 | 14.60 | 0.3% | 9.3% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
CPT and FLEX: the winner against the field
The winning portfolio used 11 different captains; the field used 29. Leverage = the winner's share of lineups with the player in that slot minus the field's, in percentage points.
The winner's most-used players. Leverage = the winner's share minus the field's, in percentage points, for the CPT slot and the FLEX slot apart.
| Player | Pos | Team | Winner CPT | Field CPT | CPT leverage | Winner FLEX | Field FLEX | FLEX leverage | FPTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | 22.2% | 18.3% | +3.9% | 47.6% | 61.7% | -14.1% | 31.44 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 14.3% | 15.3% | -1.0% | 55.6% | 61.0% | -5.4% | 25.12 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 15.9% | 14.4% | +1.5% | 39.7% | 42.3% | -2.6% | 19.00 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | NE | 11.1% | 13.7% | -2.6% | 34.9% | 36.7% | -1.8% | 7.80 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | 14.3% | 7.3% | +7.0% | 30.2% | 33.1% | -2.9% | 26.70 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 3.2% | 3.7% | -0.5% | 41.3% | 21.9% | +19.4% | 22.50 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 4.8% | 7.6% | -2.8% | 30.2% | 31.0% | -0.8% | 19.90 |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | NE | 3.2% | 5.5% | -2.3% | 25.4% | 25.4% | 0.0% | 5.30 |
| Andy Borregales | K | NE | 0.0% | 0.3% | -0.3% | 28.6% | 11.7% | +16.9% | 7.00 |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 0.0% | 0.4% | -0.4% | 27.0% | 17.2% | +9.8% | 15.00 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | CHI | 3.2% | 1.3% | +1.9% | 19.0% | 22.3% | -3.3% | 0.00 |
| Patriots | DST | NE | 0.0% | 0.5% | -0.5% | 22.2% | 5.8% | +16.4% | 2.00 |
Team split
The winning lineup was 3 CHI + 3 NE. The field's most common split was 3 CHI + 3 NE (42.2% of its lineups).
Lineups by seats per team. Field = share of all 73,529 lineups. Winner = share of the winning portfolio's 63 lineups.
| Team split | Field | Winner | Winner lineups |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 CHI + 3 NE (the winning lineup) | 42.2% | 28.6% | 18 |
| 4 CHI + 2 NE | 25.3% | 14.3% | 9 |
| 4 NE + 2 CHI | 19.6% | 22.2% | 14 |
| 5 CHI + 1 NE | 9.0% | 20.6% | 13 |
| 5 NE + 1 CHI | 3.9% | 14.3% | 9 |
Our pre-lock projection next to the field
Our projected CPT and FLEX ownership as it stood before lock (8:15 PM ET), next to what the field did. Projections are our opinion; the table shows the two numbers side by side.
Our projection = the last value stamped before lock, one row per slot (STAT_API_LATEST, engine 2.2). Field = the contest's actual ownership in that slot.
| Player | In the winning lineup | Our CPT projection | Field CPT | Our FLEX projection | Field FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | CPT | 8.0% | 7.3% | 33.0% | 33.1% |
| Drake Maye | FLEX | 17.0% | 18.3% | 57.0% | 61.7% |
| Caleb Williams | FLEX | 15.0% | 15.3% | 56.0% | 61.0% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | FLEX | 6.0% | 3.7% | 30.0% | 21.9% |
| Colston Loveland | FLEX | 7.0% | 7.6% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Eli Raridon | FLEX | 1.0% | 0.3% | 14.0% | 9.3% |
The edge spectrum: top gainers vs top detractors
Edge = (Exposure% - Field%)/100 × (FPTS - 17.75). Positive edge denotes points gained per lineup vs the field; negative edge denotes points surrendered.
Highest and lowest edge plays for abc007. Field own = share of all 73,529 lineups, any slot. Winner exp = share of 63 lineups.
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Field own | Winner exp | Leverage | FPTS | Net edge | In win lineup? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Williams | WR | NE | $1,800 | 19.2% | 6.4% | -12.8% | 0.00 | +2.28 | No |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | $7,800 | 25.6% | 44.4% | +18.9% | 22.50 | +0.90 | Yes |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | CHI | $4,400 | 21.0% | 15.9% | -5.1% | 1.30 | +0.84 | No |
| Efton Chism III | WR | NE | $2,800 | 12.8% | 9.5% | -3.2% | 2.60 | +0.49 | No |
| A.J. Brown | WR | NE | $9,000 | 50.4% | 46.0% | -4.3% | 7.80 | +0.43 | No |
| Patriots | DST | NE | $3,800 | 6.3% | 22.2% | +16.0% | 2.00 | -2.52 | No |
| Andy Borregales | K | NE | $4,800 | 12.0% | 28.6% | +16.6% | 7.00 | -1.78 | No |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | $10,600 | 79.9% | 69.8% | -10.1% | 31.44 | -1.38 | Yes |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | $10,400 | 76.3% | 69.8% | -6.5% | 25.12 | -0.48 | Yes |
| Bears | DST | CHI | $4,000 | 12.1% | 14.3% | +2.2% | 4.00 | -0.30 | No |
The top 10 portfolios
Each user in the first 10 rows of the standings, by best rank. Numbers only.
Edge total = points per lineup gained against the field. Mean chalk exp. = average exposure to Drake Maye, Caleb Williams and D'Andre Swift, 0% counted. Top CPT exp. = share of the user's lineups with Drake Maye, the field's most-captained player, at CPT.
| Best rank | Entries | Players used | Edge total | Mean chalk exp. | CPTs used | Top CPT exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 63 | 21 | +1.12 | 65.1% | 11 | 22.2% |
| 1st | 150 | 24 | +5.92 | 76.9% | 14 | 28.0% |
| 1st | 27 | 18 | -0.39 | 65.4% | 8 | 7.4% |
| 1st | 1 | 6 | +43.19 | 66.7% | 1 | 0.0% |
| 1st | 1 | 6 | +43.19 | 66.7% | 1 | 0.0% |
| 1st | 1 | 6 | +43.19 | 66.7% | 1 | 0.0% |
| 1st | 67 | 23 | +1.72 | 65.2% | 11 | 17.9% |
| 1st | 3 | 9 | +23.99 | 88.9% | 3 | 0.0% |
| 1st | 2 | 9 | +22.24 | 66.7% | 2 | 50.0% |
| 1st | 150 | 23 | +1.49 | 67.8% | 10 | 25.3% |
Open the tape
Every lineup of the winning portfolio, each player's CPT and FLEX use against the field, and the rest of the top 10 are in Contest Analysis.
Reproduce it
The contest has the biggest prize pool of the night's 729 guaranteed pre-game DraftKings Showdown contests. The core facts come from the standings (the field block), the winner's lineups (players used, exposure, captain lineups, edge) and the contest download (each player's CPT and FLEX ownership in the field, every lineup for the team split). Our projection comes from the contest's projections call, as it stood before lock (STAT_API_LATEST, engine 2.2). Every call is listed under Receipts. The calls need a Pro API key.
const BASE = 'https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519';
const headers = { Authorization: 'Bearer <YOUR_API_KEY>' }; // a Pro key
type Standings = { standings: Array<{ rank: number; username: string; points: number }> };
type UserLineups = {
user: { entries: number; players_used: number; edge_total: number };
exposure: Array<{ name: string | null; lineups: number; captain_lineups: number | null; field_pct: number | null }>;
};
const get = async <T>(path: string): Promise<T> => {
const res = await fetch(`${BASE}${path}`, { headers });
if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`${res.status} ${await res.text()}`);
return (await res.json()) as T;
};
const top = await get<Standings>('/standings?limit=10');
const winner = top.standings[0].username;
const tape = await get<UserLineups>(`/users/${encodeURIComponent(winner)}/lineups`);
for (const p of [...tape.exposure].sort((a, b) => (b.captain_lineups ?? 0) - (a.captain_lineups ?? 0)).slice(0, 3))
console.log(p.name, 'captain in', p.captain_lineups, 'of', tape.user.entries, 'lineups');
Endpoints behind this post
GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/standings?limit=10The standings and the field block: pool size, the field's average lineup, the chalk (Pro)GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/abc007/lineupsEvery lineup of one user, with exposure, captain lineups and edge (Pro)GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/download?format=jsonEvery lineup of the contest and the player pool with field, captain and FLEX ownership (Pro)GET /api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/projectionsOur projection for the contest, with a captain row and a FLEX row per player (Pro)Built automatically from the contest data. Every number links to its API call.
GET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slates/seasons?sport=nfl2026-10-23T11:00:05ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/nfl/games?season_id=2026&week=7&season_type=regular_season&limit=1002026-10-23T11:00:05ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/nfl/context?season=2026&week=72026-10-23T11:00:05ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slates?operator_id=1&date=2026-10-222026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests?slate_id=7898062026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/download?format=json&enrich=dfs.player_stats2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slates/7898062026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/slate_settings/1482026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/standings?limit=102026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/abc007/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/brenner28/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/simeonj/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/CrippleWins/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/dcevans/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/Khspikes91/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/redem7/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/Morgan.Au11/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/oreste.h/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/users/shrek4224/lineups2026-10-23T11:00:06ZGET https://api.stat-api.com/api/v1/dfs/contests/47379519/projections2026-10-23T11:00:06Z