STAT-API

How projected captain and FLEX ownership change from contest to contest.

George Kittle FLEX: 44.0% in the $1.5M Monday Night Showdown vs 81.0% in the Single Entry $25 Double Up.

Jayden Daniels is the 2nd FLEX but only the 3rd CPT in the $1.5M Monday Night Showdown (59.0% FLEX, 11.0% CPT).

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$1.5M Monday Night Showdown
GPP · 150 max · #1 prize pool

$1.5M Monday Night Showdown

$1,500,000 prize pool$20 entry87,465 of 88,235 entries150 per user

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Top CPT
25.0% Brock Purdy
Top FLEX
60.0% Brock Purdy
Top 3 CPT
59.0%
CPTFLEXActual vs projectionclosestfurthestClick a column to sort
Brock PurdyQBSF · $10,800Chalk23.9117.3625.0%19.9%60.0%60.5%85.0%1 / 115.0533.172.21
Christian McCaffreyRBSF · $11,800Chalk22.3131.7023.0%14.6%51.0%45.6%74.0%2 / 312.7832.171.89
Jayden DanielsQBWAS · $10,000Chalk20.7124.0011.0%13.2%59.0%51.6%70.0%3 / 211.6030.042.07
George KittleTESF · $8,20016.1817.9010.0%19.5%44.0%43.6%54.0%4 / 47.5025.001.97
Mike EvansWRSF · $9,60016.4212.4010.0%9.2%36.0%28.9%46.0%4 / 57.3025.901.71
Rachaad WhiteRBWAS · $6,60012.7415.704.0%5.4%28.0%34.2%32.0%6 / 65.1820.171.93
Terry McLaurinWRWAS · $8,00011.203.704.0%4.2%27.0%23.6%31.0%6 / 74.0018.801.40
Chig OkonkwoTEWAS · $4,6006.9913.902.0%1.3%23.0%19.5%25.0%8 / 81.9012.401.52
Eddy PineiroKSF · $5,20010.525.001.0%0.7%21.0%20.9%22.0%12 / 95.0016.002.02
49ersDSTSF · $4,4006.315.002.0%2.4%18.0%15.3%20.0%8 / 102.3511.001.43
Stefon DiggsWRWAS · $8,40010.2116.402.0%1.9%18.0%13.1%20.0%8 / 103.5016.601.22
Brandin CooksWRSF · $4,0006.202.302.0%2.5%17.0%21.4%19.0%8 / 131.3011.801.55
Drew StevensKWAS · $5,0008.217.001.0%0.4%18.0%15.6%19.0%12 / 103.0013.001.64
Antonio WilliamsWRWAS · $4,2005.958.001.0%0.9%14.0%14.6%15.0%12 / 141.3010.921.42
Austin EkelerRBWAS · $3,6006.602.701.0%1.4%10.0%20.5%11.0%12 / 171.2612.211.83
Jordan WatkinsWRSF · $2,0004.343.200.0%0.2%11.0%4.8%11.0%17 / 150.008.902.17
Kyle JuszczykRBSF · $1,4004.232.000.0%0.2%11.0%11.4%11.0%17 / 150.008.503.02
Jacob CowingWRSF · $2,2004.250.000.0%0.3%9.0%10.0%9.0%17 / 180.008.901.93
CommandersDSTWAS · $3,4003.494.001.0%0.3%6.0%5.0%7.0%12 / 19-2.009.001.03
Kaelon BlackRBSF · $3,8004.144.700.0%0.6%6.0%6.6%6.0%17 / 190.638.431.09
Treylon BurksWRWAS · $3,2002.9910.600.0%0.4%6.0%9.4%6.0%17 / 190.007.000.94
Dyami BrownWRWAS · $2,6001.251.600.0%0.1%2.0%4.6%2.0%17 / 220.003.100.48
Jeremy McNicholsRBWAS · $2002.391.300.0%0.4%2.0%9.3%2.0%17 / 220.005.8011.96
John BatesTEWAS · $1,6000.601.400.0%0.0%1.0%1.5%1.0%17 / 240.000.400.38
Jordan JamesRBSF · $4000.870.000.0%0.0%1.0%0.4%1.0%17 / 240.001.502.17
Luke FarrellTESF · $1,2000.670.000.0%0.0%1.0%2.9%1.0%17 / 240.000.000.56
Athan KaliakmanisQBWAS · $6,0000.400.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%17 / 270.000.460.07
Ben SinnottTEWAS · $6000.530.000.0%0.0%0.0%1.9%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.89
Brandon AiyukWRSF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Brayden WillisTESF · $2000.390.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%0.0%17 / 270.000.001.97
Christian KirkWRSF · $3,0000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Colson YankoffTEWAS · $2000.480.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%17 / 270.000.002.40
Craig ReynoldsRBWAS · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
De'Zhaun StriblingWRSF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.WRSF · $8,6000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Demarcus RobinsonWRSF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Devin NealRBWAS · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Isaac GuerendoRBSF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Jack StollTESF · $2000.210.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.001.05
Jack WestoverTEWAS · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBWAS · $7,0000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Jaden BradleyWRWAS · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Jake TongesTESF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Jaylin LaneWRWAS · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Khalil DinkinsTESF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Kurtis RourkeQBSF · $6,0000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Luke McCaffreyWRWAS · $1,0000.650.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.65
Mac JonesQBSF · $6,0000.290.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.05
Malik TurnerWRSF · $2000.370.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%0.0%17 / 270.000.001.87
Marcus MariotaQBWAS · $6,0000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Nick DeGennaroWRWAS · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Ricky PearsallWRSF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
River CracraftWRWAS · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Sam HartmanQBWAS · $6,0000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Sincere McCormickRBSF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Tyler OttTEWAS · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Van JeffersonWRWAS · $8001.350.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%17 / 270.002.701.68
Wesley GrimesWRSF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Will PaulingWRSF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00
Xavier SmithWRSF · $2000.000.000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%17 / 270.000.000.00

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Every game

How projected ownership by contest works

Projected ownership is the share of lineups in a contest that we expect to roster a player. It comes from the learned single-game ownership model of STAT-API, one value per player per contest, before the game starts.

Captain and FLEX ownership are projected separately. The captain seat is CPT on DraftKings Showdown and MVP on FanDuel Single Game, and each lineup has one captain and five FLEX seats on both operators. So in every contest the captain values add up to 100% and the FLEX values add up to 500%.

The same player is owned differently from contest to contest. Cash games (50-50s and double ups) crowd into the safest players, while large GPPs spread out. Two switches open the contests of a game: the operator, and GPP or CASH, the biggest GPP or the biggest cash game at an entry fee of $25 or less.

Each row shows the projected fantasy points beside the captain and FLEX ownership. After the game, the same row shows the actual points, and the actual captain and FLEX ownership of the contest each beside its projection, so one view compares them, and a shade marks how close each projection came. The actual ownership of the night's biggest DraftKings Showdown is free; of any other contest it is part of Pro.

Contests with the same terms (entry fee, field size, entries per user, prize pool) get the same projected ownership, and the list says how many share it. Qualifiers are left out. On a TNF or MNF game every contest, cash games included, every player and the CSV are free. On any other slate the 5 most-owned players are free in the 5 biggest contests, with their projected points and ownership, and Download CSV saves them. Pro opens the cash games and every other contest, every player, every slate and the full CSV. "Get this data", the API request behind the view, is part of Pro.

The numbers

CPT / MVP
The share of lineups in the contest that make the player their captain. The captain seat scores 1.5 times the points.
FLEX
The share of lineups that roster the player in one of the five FLEX seats.
Total
Captain plus FLEX: the share of lineups that roster the player in any seat.
Floor – Ceiling
The FLEX projection's range: its floor is the 15th percentile of the outcomes our model projects, its ceiling the 85th. The dot is the projection. Hover a row for the captain's range.
Value
Projected FLEX points per $1,000 of salary.
Act Pts, Act CPT / MVP, Act FLEX
After the game: the FLEX fantasy points the player scored, and the share of lineups in the contest that made the player their captain, or rostered the player in a FLEX seat.
The shades
How close the projection came, from dark green (closest) through gray to dark red (furthest). Points: within 10%, 20%, 35% or 50% of the projection (of at least 10 points). Ownership, captain and FLEX each against its own projection: within 2, 5, 10 or 15 percentage points. Anything further is dark red.
Rank
The captain rank and the FLEX rank of the player in the open contest (1 = the most owned). A player can be a popular FLEX and a rare captain.
Across contests
The open operator's GPP and cash contests and its next-biggest prize pools, 5 contests side by side, captain over FLEX in each cell. A darker cell is a higher value.